Scenario Analysis of Water Supply and Demand Using WEAP Model: A Case of Yala Catchment, Kenya

Jared Okungu^1, , Josiah Adeyemo¹ and Fredrick Otieno¹

¹Department of Civil & Structural Engineering, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Kakamega, Kenya

Cite this paper

Jared Okungu, Josiah Adeyemo and Fredrick Otieno. Scenario Analysis of Water Supply and Demand Using WEAP Model: A Case of Yala Catchment, Kenya. American Journal of Water Resources. 2017; 5(4):125-131. doi: 10.12691/AJWR-5-4-5

Abstract

The counties traversed by Yala River Catchment in Kenya have been constrained by acute shortages of water resources because of the declining stream flows, which is occasioned by environmental changes, increasing population and changing land uses. This study applied Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model to evaluate past trends and simulate current demand scenarios for the purposes of planning by authorities in regard to future use. The study used historical data (1970-2015) to assess water supply and demand in the catchment for the period 2016 to 2045 by simulation. Calibration and validation were each performed on 10-year streamflow datasets (1991-2000 and 2001-2010 respectively), drawn from 4 gauging stations. Simulations were then conducted for the scenarios namely: Reference (at 2.8% growth rate), High Growth (3.2%), High Growth (3.5%), and Moderated Growth (2.2%). The categories of water demand evaluated in WEAP included: Domestic-Institutional-Municipal, Agriculture, and Industry uses. In a 5-year time-step, WEAP demonstrated resultant increase in water demand for year 2020 by 7.46% from 2016 at Reference Scenario. WEAP further simulated a gradual increase in water demand during subsequent years. This trend would continue for the rest of the scenarios but with variations occasioned by adjustment of variables in WEAP such as population growth rates, monthly variations, annual activity levels, water use rates, water losses and reuse rates, industrial production units, agricultural acreages, and varied demand sites. In conclusion, there were demonstrated substantial increases in water demands within individual scenarios between 2016 to 2045, but these increases were significantly different scenario-by-scenario. The study recommends that supply and demand measures be employed with the aim of regulating activity levels, losses and consumptions so as to meet demands in case any of the studied scenarios would be applicable.

Keywords

scenario analysis, water supply and demand, WEAP model, Yala catchment

Copyright

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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